For this month's Guildford property market update I have taken a look at the latest figures available to indicate the state of the nation, as the housing market continues to be influenced very much by national issues such as BREXIT and what possible affects the new PM and his policies will have on the property market, both locally and nationally.
Wages rose 3.9% in the three months to June, the highest rate of growth since 2008 according to new figures released by the Office for National Statistics. Wage growth continues to outstrip inflation, 1.9% in June, the same as in May and down 0.1% on April.
GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2019. This is the first time there has been a fall since 2012. Manufacturing output and construction both fell, and the trade deficit narrowed, following a sharp rise at the beginning of 2019, coinciding with the UK's original departure date from the EU.
UK employment remains at its highest level since 1971. The ONS report 32.76 million people aged 16-64 were in employment in the three months to the end of June. The number of self-employed part-timers has increased to over 1.5 million, more than double 25 years ago.
HMRC reported house sale transaction levels in July were 12.4% below the same month a year ago. It is worth pointing out that the June 2019 figure has just been revised from a 16.5% fall to a 4.7% fall. It is likely that the July fall is not as substantial as is being currently reported.
Nationally there were 7.8% fewer homes for sale in June compared to a year ago, according to Rightmove, with sales volumes 4.6% lower to date in 2019. With demand levels starting to stabilise, the RICS expect some improvement in sales rates at the national level over the next 12 months.
The latest RICS Residential Market Survey suggests market demand is beginning to stabilise. In July demand levels increased for the second month running, following consecutive months of decline since July 2018.
The low interest rate and greater availability of mortgage products might have influenced the number of mortgage approvals. These rose slightly in June to 66,440, above the 60,000 projected in the May Bank of England inflation report. Although buyer interest remains, the average time to find a buyer in July, was 62 days, the longest since July 2013, according to Rightmove.
The latest data available at The Land Registry states the average house price in the UK is £230,292. Property prices have risen by 0.7% compared to the previous month, and risen by 0.9% compared to the previous year.
How does the local Guildford property market compare?
Average property selling prices have continued to increase but only marginally at 2% overall, over the last 12 months.
Wages rose 3.9% in the three months to June, the highest rate of growth since 2008 according to new figures released by the Office for National Statistics. Wage growth continues to outstrip inflation, 1.9% in June, the same as in May and down 0.1% on April.
GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2019. This is the first time there has been a fall since 2012. Manufacturing output and construction both fell, and the trade deficit narrowed, following a sharp rise at the beginning of 2019, coinciding with the UK's original departure date from the EU.
UK employment remains at its highest level since 1971. The ONS report 32.76 million people aged 16-64 were in employment in the three months to the end of June. The number of self-employed part-timers has increased to over 1.5 million, more than double 25 years ago.
HMRC reported house sale transaction levels in July were 12.4% below the same month a year ago. It is worth pointing out that the June 2019 figure has just been revised from a 16.5% fall to a 4.7% fall. It is likely that the July fall is not as substantial as is being currently reported.
Nationally there were 7.8% fewer homes for sale in June compared to a year ago, according to Rightmove, with sales volumes 4.6% lower to date in 2019. With demand levels starting to stabilise, the RICS expect some improvement in sales rates at the national level over the next 12 months.
The latest RICS Residential Market Survey suggests market demand is beginning to stabilise. In July demand levels increased for the second month running, following consecutive months of decline since July 2018.
The low interest rate and greater availability of mortgage products might have influenced the number of mortgage approvals. These rose slightly in June to 66,440, above the 60,000 projected in the May Bank of England inflation report. Although buyer interest remains, the average time to find a buyer in July, was 62 days, the longest since July 2013, according to Rightmove.
The latest data available at The Land Registry states the average house price in the UK is £230,292. Property prices have risen by 0.7% compared to the previous month, and risen by 0.9% compared to the previous year.
How does the local Guildford property market compare?
Average property selling prices have continued to increase but only marginally at 2% overall, over the last 12 months.
Most vendors I speak with have been concerned, for whatever reason, that their properties have been taking longer to sell. Current figures suggest the following number of days are taken for homes within a 3 mile radius of the centre of Guildford, to sell.
The number of properties sold in the most recent month for which data is available, compared to the same month last year, has reduced dramatically. Some say this is due to a reduction in the level of seller and buyer confidence due to the current state of the nation so vendors are delaying their decision to move; or extending their homes rather than move to a larger property.
Currently their are 557 homes for sale in the Guildford area with 48 having been added in the last 14 days with an average asking price of £556,692. However a substantial number of property listings have also been removed from Rightmove over the last week suggesting that properties are being sold, even after months of delay.
Source: home.co.uk
Considering the uncertainty the Country has been through in the last three years with the ‘B’ word issue, stock levels and the increase in time to sell might be of concern but as prices are still moving up, albeit by only a small overall percentage, the underlying resilience of the local market does remain strong, as suggested by the long term price increases that Guildford has experienced.
Now looking forward towards the end of the year .. how will Guildford house values change under the new Prime Minister?
Boris Johnson and Brexit are short-term distractions from the long-term issues of the UK property market. Until we start building at least 300,000 properties a year to meet the demand for UK property, demand will always outstrip supply, meaning irrespective of short-term fluctuations that may or may not be caused by domestic and world events, prices will always in the medium to long term remain stable and increase.
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